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Now
that the government will guarantee all bank deposits - no matter how
large - attention turns to the companies with cash. The more the
better. We identify several large, mid and small cap companies with
ample fire power for acquisitions once the banking systems stablises. At
the big end of the market Seven Network is one one of the most liquid
relative to its size with $1.16 billion in cash forming 98% of its
current market value. This represents a breathtaking revaluation of the
business assets which until two weeks ago were worth at least $300m but
are now effectvely zero.
At
the centre is the 50% stake in the television network and the seven
magazines which it shares with Wall Street leveraged buy-out firm KKR.
Then. orbiting this core holding, are various media and other assets
consisting principally of a 22% holding in WA News, 4.58% of
Consolidate Media, owenership of the "under development" wireless
business Unwired and effective control of Engin, a internet and VOP
service provider making painful losses. Unrelated to this collection
is a stake in GRD, the mineral and waste processing design engineers
which has a solid pipeline of projects, but which has also slumped..
A
buy-back at current levels will be highly accretive as Kerry Stokes
makes up for buying into media assets at the top; he can now have a
second go at the bottom paying as little as $240m for eliminating 20%
of the shareson issue. This will leave Seven with about $900m and a
mixed collection of media assets: two cash-cows in Seven Media Group
and WAN and the two fairly expensive experiments in engin and Unwired.
"The Wimax" technology has its sceptics, but does have the great
advanatge of relatively low cost roll-out. The obvious query hanging
over this lot is whether the Seven team and Stokes have the capacity to
second guess where broadcast technology will go and the uptake in a
more subdued, dollar conscious environment. The "products" touted by
the new media crowd tend to be faddish and trivial; restaurants and
cricket scores. But we should show some rspect; Kerry Stokes did not
make his multimillions by day-dreaming.
He now has one of the biggest war chests on the scene; it will be difficult not to buy well. Others
with significantly high cash balances include Origin aat the big end of
town and IMF, Ipernica and Oncard at the micro end of the market. For
Oncard's situation see our report blwo, but don't ignore the litigation
businesses IMF and Ipernica with $83m and $32m each. For IMF this
represents 95% of the market cap and for Ipernica it is also roughly
100%. As with Seven the market's pricing of these ones is wildly awry,
typical of times of stress.
In
both almost all future growth is discounetd out of contention, whereas
the informed observer, or perhaps we should see the unstressed observer
can fairly predict that both will have a fair share of settlements from
cases in progress and more to be joined. It is also likely that broadly
both are in a better position to bring cases and manage cases, being
well cashed up. Ring for more detailed reports.
The
market efficiency hypthosis is a typical example of our academic
thinking seeks to create laws and models of aspects of human behaviour
like economics where there is only complexity and impermenance.
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